Who Will Win the NBA MVP This Season

Every NBA season I post a MVP prediction blog during the pre-season. This, of course, is that blog, and even though I'm posting it a little later than usual I think this will suffice. With that being said, here is my prediction for the top five finishers in this year's MVP race.

5. Joel Embiid - Philadelphia 76ers

The reigning MVP is going to finish near the bottom of the top five this season for several reasons. The main reason is simply the narrative. Almost everyone agrees that Nikola Jokic should have won the award last year, and because of this Embiid has been pushed to the side in the narrative department. Nobody really cares about his situation at the moment, even though the 76ers are currently fighting through a James Harden trade request. He will have an even bigger workload this season with Harden gone, which you would think would increase his chances of winning the award again. However, with an increased workload comes injuries, and for a player like Embiid I can't help but to think he will likely face several this season. You pair that with other star players being forced to play instead of load manage, effectively strengthening his competition, and you realize why Embiid is so far down my list.

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4. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Milwaukee Bucks

After Embiid there's a pretty big gap. I have Giannis at number four, but there's a very good chance that he wins his third MVP this season. I do think he will have the weakest case among the rest of this list, but we all know what he's capable of. He will be sharing the workload big time this year, as Damian Lillard will require the ball in his hands far more than Jrue Holiday ever did. I think it's far more likely that he picks up another defensive player of the year than another MVP, simply because I think his offensive output may drop slightly while his defensive impact will remain the same. He, like Embiid, has also fallen out of the narrative slightly. Obviously everyone is excited to see the Bucks play this year, but I think a ton of people have forgotten how good Giannis is after a few years since he was winning MVPs and a championship.

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3. Jayson Tatum - Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum has a very similar outlook this season as Giannis, but a few things put him ahead of Giannis in this race. As far as workload is concerned he too may take a hit this season. Adding Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday pretty much takes Tatum out of the upper echelon of this race for me. The main thing that puts Tatum over guys like Giannis and Embiid for me is the narrative. The NBA wants him to be the face of their league so bad. They're going to push him as hard as they can, and it's going to be incredibly obvious. The reigning champion Nuggets will not get the most media time this season. It will be the Celtics, Lakers, and Warriors. I also think the Celtics probably finish with the best record in the league, which is obviously huge for an MVP campaign. I think Tatum is the worst (not that he's not great) player on this list, but it's clear to see where the league wants him to go.

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2. Luka Doncic - Dallas Mavericks

As much as it pains me, I think Luka goes another year without an MVP. I've predicted him to win it the past two seasons, and he's always in the mix, but he hasn't been able to get it done. It's funny too, because I think this year will be his best regular season yet. His individual numbers will always be good enough to compete for the award, but this year his team is built well enough to compete for a high seed in the playoffs. He's also good enough to play his way out of any narratives (I know I've used that word a ton) that may be holding him back. I say this because as of right now it seems like he's fallen behind the hype train of several players who are simply not as good as him. The consistent theme with Doncic when it comes to this race is that no matter what happens he's going to be in the conversation, he simply needs something to get him over the hump. I think he will win the award if the Mavericks finish with a top four seed in the West, the issue is that I don't think that will happen.

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1. Nikola Jokic - Denver Nuggets

As of today Jokic is very clearly the favorite to win the award. I've done all this talk about narratives in this blog, well all the narratives are pointing towards Jokic winning his third MVP. Pretty much everyone is in agreement that he should have won the award last year, he's the reigning NBA champion and Finals MVP, and he's just very very good. He and Luka are going to have the best stats in the league, but Jokic is obviously going to have more team success. I don't see a world where Jokic doesn't win MVP if he keeps up his individual numbers and finishes as the top seed in the West again. The only thing standing against him is just how stacked the Western conference is this year, meaning there is a chance the Nuggets don't secure that top seed. With that being said, I really do think the Nuggets are the best team in the league as of right now, so if I were a betting man I would pick Jokic to take home his third trophy.

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