To be frank, the Bulls have been an outright massive disappointment this season. If they ever had a window to compete in the DeRozan and LaVine era then that window has closed and it's closed tight. The "big three" of LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic will soon be heading to new franchises as the team approaches a rebuild. However, just when the Windy City had lost all hope, from the ash a hero has emerged, and his name is Coby White...
Coby White was drafted by the Bulls out of North Carolina with the seventh pick in the 2019 draft. He looked great in his rookie season, averaging 13.2 points on really good shooting splits. Then he got even better in his sophomore season with his stats improving across the board while he started 54 games. However, White became the sacrificial lamb in Chicago when DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic came to town. The following season saw White take a major dip in every statistical category EXCEPT for his efficiency. Finally, last year White saw the lowest totals in his career, only starting two games all season. It looked like White was slowly getting pushed out of Chicago...until Zach LaVine went down with an injury at the end of last month. Since then, White has averaged 24.8 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.9 rebound while shooting 50.3% from the field and 49% from three. He's been absolutely sensational, and has made the decision to move on from this current era of Bulls basketball significantly easier for the Chicago front office.
pc: Kamil Krzaczynski/USA Today Sports
For some this emergence is shocking, but this version of White has always been there. While his stats were all dipping in his first few seasons his efficiency was only getting better. HE WAS GETTING BETTER. We just weren't able to see it because he was hiding behind big names with big games. Sharp basketball minds should've seen this coming from a mile away, and yet we didn't. I think this should lead to a very valuable conversation, that guards take significantly longer to develop in the NBA than players at other positions. This should subsequently raise an even more valuable question...what young guards are currently where White was a year or two ago who are primed to have a breakout season sometime soon?
*Disclaimer: Some of these guys could be considered small forwards. However, if I view them as a player who takes on more guard responsibilities, but plays the three, I will consider these parameters to be valid for them as well.*
Immanuel Quickley - New York Knicks - Age: 24
I see a ton of similarities between Immanuel Quickley and Coby White. He's the sixth man for a Knicks team that, like the Bulls, is in a very awkward situation. His production is also very similar to White's before the LaVine injury. The most obvious, and telling, similarity is the efficiency. Quickley is playing four less minutes a game this year than he did last year, and because of that his volume is down. However, his totals are about the same, and that's because he's been more valuable in his minutes this season than in years past. This tells me that Quickley is slowly but surely getting better, and that if he were to be given a serious opportunity to shine there's a good chance he would succeed. This iteration of the Knicks is going to fall apart at some point, and I think there's a good chance that they keep Quickley around to give him the shot he deserves.
Aaron Nesmith - Indiana Pacers - Age: 24
Aaron Nesmith is an interesting case, because he's not on as many people's radars as guys like Coby White and Immanuel Quickley. However, he has shown flashes at both of his stops along his young career, but especially in Indiana. Last year he started 60 games, but this year on a better Pacers team he has only started once. Most would assume this means that Nesmith isn't the player that I am saying he may be, but when you look at his numbers you too will be impressed. His attempts from both the floor and three have slightly dipped, but his makes are up from both areas. He's shooting 53% from the field (11% increase) and 45% from three (9% increase). This has led to Nesmith to averaging 1.5 more points per game than last year. If he were to maintain this efficiency while playing starter minutes sometime in the future, he would look fantastic. I don't think his ceiling is as high as someone like Coby White, but it's definitely high enough that Nesmith still has room to climb.
MarJon Beauchamp - Milwaukee Bucks - Age: 23
There are two major reasons why I decided to include MarJon Beauchamp on this despite him being only a second-year player without stellar numbers. The first is that when it comes to sitting behind guys waiting for an opportunity, Beauchamp is a poster-boy. On a stacked Bucks team, Beauchamp is only getting about 17 minutes per game, a three minute increase from his rookie season. His totals across the board are almost identical to his first year in the league, but what really sells him for me is his efficiency increase. His 48.5% shooting from the floor is a 9% increase from last year, and his 43.6% from three is an increase of 10%. MarJon has been significantly more valuable in his minutes this year than he was last season. We can't stay for sure simply because the volume isn't there yet, but I think Beauchamp could seriously impress if he ever gets to play a starter role.
Deni Avdija - Washington Wizards - Age: 22
Avdija is probably the least "guard-like" player I wanted to talk about in this blog, but he just has to be mentioned. This was supposed to be his year in Washington with the departure of Kristaps Porzingis, but the introduction of Jordan Poole seemingly swept Avdija under the rug. However, he has been very good this season, having the best season of his four year career so far. Unlike everyone else on this list, he is a full-time starter. My argument is that if he were the primary option on offense he would have all-star upside. He's a fantastic defender, and his shooting splits give you a sneak peak of what he could be as an offensive piece. He's averaging a career high 11.5 points per game while shooting career bests from the floor and from three. His 50% from the field is a 6% increase from last year, and his 34.3% from three is 4% better than his mark last season. This is on increased volume, meaning Avdija is significantly better on offense this year than he has been in the past. I think the Wizards move on from Poole and Kyle Kuzma sooner rather than later, and Avdija should finally get a chance to be the guy in Washington.
Ochai Agbaji - Utah Jazz - Age: 23
Ochai Agbaji is an interesting name for this list. He's our second second-year player I wanted to talk about, but he's in a much different situation than Beauchamp. Agbaji should have a decent amount of the attention on a bad Utah Jazz team, but the Jazz are so scrambled that Agbaji has fallen behind. He is averaging less points and attempts this year, but like everyone on this list his splits have improved. He has seen a 2% boost from both the floor and from three, and has been the most efficient shooter from the corner in the league this season. What really sets Agbaji apart is his defense. He's the best on-ball defender in Utah, and sees the toughest matchup on the floor every night. I'm not sure if Agbaji has top-two offensive option upside, but if he ever becomes a good third option with how good he is on the other end you are looking at an all-star.
I'm not saying all of these guys are going to have Coby White-like explosions at any point in their careers. What I am saying is that these are some of the most-likely guys to do so. I am confident that all of these guys are going to have long and successful careers. Going forward we have to learn to be patient with young talent in the NBA, and these just happen to be the guards (ish) that I'm willing to be the most patient with.
All stats as of December 18th*