League Bound Blue Devils: Duke University Prospect Overview

With the second installation of my college prospect overview series, I'm sticking with the blue-bloods and moving onto Duke. If you haven't read the Kentucky edition, go ahead and do that if you feel so inclined before continuing here. Concerning Duke, this is another team chock full of potential NBA draftees. This year I think they have three guys that will likely get drafted in 2024, and a few others to keep an eye on in the future. In the Kentucky edition I included an "Undrafted" tag next to players that I thought would return next season, but that was because every prospect at Kentucky has a chance of entering the draft. In this blog I'm going to include a "Returner" tag instead, because I actually do think Duke will attempt to return their players if given the opportunity. With that being said, let's jump right into the Duke prospect overview for the 2024 NBA draft.

All stats as of 2/29/2024*

Kyle Filipowski - F/C - 7'0" 248lbs - Sophomore - Lottery-Mid 1st

Kyle Filipowski is the most intriguing prospect on this year's Duke roster, and for good reason. A strategic decision to remain at Duke one extra year when he likely would have been drafted last year has paid dividends, moving him up almost every draft board. The versatile big now sees himself as one of the top bigs in this draft, and one who will likely be selected in the lottery. He has been great this season, proving that the one-and-done method may not always be a top recruit's best path to the league.

pc: via Sporting News

This season Filipowski is averaging 16.6 points per game, 8.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1 steal. His shooting splits have been solid, shooting 50% from the field, 34.4% from three, and an admittedly bad 66.2% from the line. Overall, he has proven to be an impact player on both ends of the floor, especially offense, where he gives Duke a ton of flexibility and fire power.

Speaking of offense, this part of his game is the primary reason why he's projected to be a lottery pick this year. He's a three-level scorer at 7-feet tall, something that will allow him to seamlessly fit into rosters in the league. His efficiency has improved since his freshman campaign, which is what scouts wanted to see from him in his return. Like I mentioned, he has been shaky at the free-throw line throughout his collegiate career, but something like this can always be fixed with time and practice. His three-point shooting is what separates him from other bigs in his class, as he's seen a 6% increase in his makes from deep this season. Finally, he's a capable playmaker and passer. Last year he had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio, pairing 1.6 assists with 2.5 turnovers. This season he has changed that, putting up 2.9 assists and 2.3 turnovers. He still has room to grow in this department, but he has already shown signs of being a good offensive hub at the division-one level.

Filipowski isn't some sort of defensive specimen, but he can hold his own on this end too. For having the build of a center, he moves more like a forward. These traits help him match up well with any player in the interior. He's not going to keep up with guards on the perimeter, but he's capable of effecting shots at the rim when guards drive into him. He is a lanky guy, which could mean NBA big men have the ability to push him around, but the league is moving more towards players with his build. He can get into foul trouble, but for the most part this isn't a huge issue. All in all, there's definitely questions about his defensive floor and ceiling, but not enough to harm his draft stock.

I foresee Kyle Filipowski being a very good backup big on a good team, or a top-end rotational starting power forward for a middling team. In a draft as weak as this year's, that level of production is enough to get a player selected in the lottery. Being a productive sophomore helps answer questions regarding his floor, meaning teams are less worried about him not panning out than they would be with a rawer prospect. Expect to see Filipowski hear his name called within the first 10-15 picks in the draft.

Jared McCain - Combo Guard - 6'3" 197lbs - Freshman - 1st Round

Jared McCain has been one of the bigger risers in this year's draft class. Coming into the year he wasn't on many draft boards, at least in the first-round, and now he's virtually cemented himself as a first-round selection. In cases like this there really is only one word to explain the sudden rise of a previously unsung prospect: Production. McCain has produced at a high level for a very good Duke team in only his freshman season. He's one of the premier shooters in this class, which alone is sure to garner draft buzz. He does a multitude of other things as well that have impressed scouts and is just an overall safe prospect with room to grow.

pc: via 247 Sports

McCain is putting up impressive stats on a stacked Duke roster this season, averaging 13.6 points per game, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.1 steals. His efficiency, especially from beyond the arc, is what has really boosted his draft stock. He's shooting 46% from the field, 41.8% from three, and 85.7% from the line on the season. These numbers suggest that McCain is one of the top performing freshman in the country, and they're why he's as highly touted as he is.

His primary trait is his shooting ability, specifically from three. He's a fantastic catch-and-shoot and pull-up threat, and he makes these shots at an efficient clip. We don't have to dive super deep into discussion about this ability; Jared McCain is simply a very good shooter. What I do want to address is just how good he is in the mid-range and attacking the basket. He's incredibly efficient in both of these areas as well, proving that he can definitely be a three-level scorer at the NBA level. He's not an explosive athlete, but he's a crafty finisher and a smart basketball player who is able to find his spots and make his shots. The offensive issues arise when you consider that at only 6'3", he really only plays the shooting guard position. This likely won't be the case at the next level, as he will probably be asked to man the point due to his size. At the moment he isn't a good enough playmaker to do this at a high level. However, he is a smart enough player to be able to make these changes to his game and be successful after doing so. If he can adapt his game to make himself a legitimate cog in a basketball machine his other traits will allow him to thrive.

On the defensive end, McCain isn't anything special. Like I said, he's not an incredibly athlete, and I actually think he moves a little lackadaisical for being a small guard. However, he isn't necessarily a bad defender. I think he can keep up with guys his size for the most part, and he has good enough basketball IQ to poke a ball loose here and there. He's not going to be contesting shots or picking up show stopping blocks, but he'll get the job done. He's average enough on defense that it isn't a huge red flag for me. Now, will NBA players make him look worse on this end than college opponents have? Probably. But there's always a learning curve when you enter the league, and McCain seems like a smart enough player to figure it out long-term.

I don't think McCain will ever be a premier NBA point guard, but if he can keep shooting the cover off the ball once he makes it to the league, he will have a long career. If he is able to become somewhat of a floor general at any point, he will immediately become a way better player than we can currently project him to be...I'm just not sure he will ever do that. That being said, if his scoring and shooting acumen can translate to the league, he is worth taking in the first-round.

Tyrese Proctor - G - 6'5" 183lbs - Sophomore - 2nd Round

Unlike Filipowski and McCain, Tyrese Proctor has actually fallen down draft boards throughout the course of the year. Coming into the year he was projected as a potential lottery pick, and now he's firmly outside of the first-round. Most agree that he still has potential and solid upside, but his production just hasn't been up to par. Proctor, like Filipowski, was expected to take a big jump after an average Freshman season, and he just hasn't. However, his upside alone will likely earn him a second-round selection, here's why:

pc: Duke University Athletics

Proctor is averaging 10.2 points per game, 3.7 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and .7 steals on the season. His splits have been pretty good, as he's shooting 44% from the field, 35.7% from three, and 76.1% from the line. Obviously, these stats don't jump off the page, but they're also nothing to scoff at. Proctor has been better than he was last year in both averages and splits while playing one fewer minute per game. He also fouls and turn the ball over less than he did last year. Overall, he has shown slight improvements, but hasn't had the sophomore breakout season expected of him.

Offensively, Proctor leaves some questions to be answered. Most people consider him to be a versatile scoring threat, but we haven't seen a ton of that this season. The three-point shot that was highly regarded coming into college hasn't quite made it to that level yet. His inside game is good but doesn't make you jump out of your chair. He's athletic, more athletic than a guy like McCain, but he doesn't always use this athleticism to his advantage. Overall, his offensive game is almost 100% upside based. The production hasn't been at the level where you can confidently say he'll be great at any one thing at the next level, but you know in the back of your head that he's capable of being an offensive option in the league. I do like his playmaking acumen and think this is something that we can evaluate today. He has a good head on his shoulders and makes smart decisions when setting up his teammates.

Defense is where I'm more impressed by Proctor. His lanky frame and his overall size at the guard position excites me. He doesn't have the world's best defensive numbers at the moment, but when you watch him play you can tell he's a plus defender. He matches up well against smaller guards on the perimeter, and his wingspan allows him to play good help defense on big men inside. It may take some polishing, but I'm fairly confident his defensive upside alone could earn him a selection in this year's draft.

It really is all about potential for Proctor. We've seen guys like Jalen Johnson come out of Duke after a disappointing season before going on to be a really good player in the league. Proctor has a similar outlook to someone like Johnson, a guard/wing who can score at every level and play solid defense because of his size. If he lands in a good situation, and he's properly developed by the organization that takes him in, he could end up being a very solid NBA player.

Jeremy Roach - Point Guard - 6'2" 180lbs - Senior - 2nd Round-Undrafted

This is a weird situation, because while Jeremy Roach could go back to college for his fifth year, I also think he could get picked in the draft. Unless he just has some sort of spectacular season in his final year of eligibility, I can't see his value being any higher than it is now. He's one of the best veteran point guards in college basketball, and he's been a stalwart for this Duke team for four years now. He's an offensive firecracker, and he's a surprisingly pesky defender for being an undersized guard. All in all, he'll probably test the draft waters, but I'm not certain if he'll declare or not.

pc: Duke University Athletics

Roach has been doing Roach things this year, averaging 14.4 points per game, 3 assists, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals this season. He's scoring those points on fantastic efficiency, shooting 49.6% from the field, 48% from three, and 86.5% from the line. At this point in his career, nobody is arguing about his production.

Like I said, offensively there aren't many questions. After a four-year college career, we know what Jeremy Roach is on the offensive side of the floor. He's a fantastic shot maker from both the three and mid-range, and he's a crafty finisher around the rim. He's also a big game guy, who quickly turns into Duke's number-one option whenever they are in desperate need for a bucket. He's THE veteran leader on one of the best programs in the nation. All of this helps his draft stock.

Defensively, there will always be questions about smaller guards. Those questions are valid. Roach is too small to affect the game inside the perimeter, and he's not some sort of lockdown defender outside of the arc either. He is a smart player with quick hands who can disrupt opposing offenses at times, and this is why he picks up a few steals here and there. The thing is, a guy like Roach is never going to be asked to guard the best players on opposing teams in the NBA. For the most part he probably won't be sharing the court with the best players on opposing teams. If he's capable of sticking with the other team's backup point guard, he'll be doing his job.

I'm not positive if Roach's production as a senior in college is enough to get him drafted. If it is it will be late in the second-round. However, I think Roach has a good chance at being an NBA role-player. Whether that opportunity is given to him via second-round draft selection in 2024 or 2025 or in the form of a two-way deal after draft day, we will have to wait and see.

Mark Mitchell - Forward - 6'9" 232lbs - Sophomore - 2nd Round-Returner

I am a big fan of what Mark Mitchell projects to be long-term. An athletic forward/wing with great size who's versatile on both ends of the floor. He's had somewhat of a confusing season this year, but his potential still screams at you when you watch him play. His archetype is highly valued in the modern NBA, which is why I think he could get drafted this year. I'm not sure if he's been good enough to earn a draft spot, but assuming he'd rather not come back for his junior season, I think there's a good chance he enters the draft.

pc: Duke University Athletics

On the season Mitchell is averaging 12.8 points per game, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .8 steals, and .6 blocks. His shooting splits have been confusing, as he's shooting 55.4% from the field, 25% from three, and 65.7% from the line. He's shooting about 10% better from the field this year, but he's shooting 10% worse from three and from the line. Obviously, he's changed his shot diet, but these splits don't exactly entice me.

On offense, Mitchell projects to be a versatile scoring option on the wing. Last year he looked like a legitimate floor spacer, and while that has seemingly changed this season, that shot has to be within him somewhere. He's at his best scoring around the rim with athletic finishes. He's a good role guy, and he's relatively powerful for his size. He's never going to be an offensive hub or playmaking option. He turns the ball over more than he picks up assists, but at this point I highly doubt he'll ever be asked to run the offense in this way. All in all, if he can revive that three-point shot he becomes a way more draftable prospect.

Like his offensive game, most agree that Mitchell has versatile defensive upside. I actually prefer his defensive projections to his offensive projections. Guys like Mitchell, who know they'll never be an all-star level offensive option, have to make up room somewhere. That usually comes on the defensive end, and he has what it takes to be a great defensive weapon. That athleticism, size, and strength that I mentioned earlier are huge tools for his defensive game. His ability to stick with guards while still being big and strong enough to defend big men is incredibly valuable. He could become a great on-ball or off-ball defender with these traits. This is where his true ceiling is, and if he figures that out, you're looking at a player who could have a long and successful NBA career.

All in all, I think if Mitchell puts his name in this year's draft, he will be taken in the second-round. There's too much upside on the table for a good-sized wing not to take a chance on him. If he does decide to return to Duke for his junior campaign, he will surely be a focal point on the team next season. This could help him or hurt him, because if he doesn't have a great season as a junior his draft stock will plummet. If I were him, I would probably enter the draft before this incoming class gets to Duke. If those guys are as good as they're supposed to be, there's a chance Mitchell could get lost in the mix.

Caleb Foster - Combo Guard - 6'5" 197lbs - Freshman - Returner

I wanted to talk about Caleb Foster because I really like how he projects long-term. He's a big guard with a playstyle that I'm a huge fan of. A smooth operator on offense and defense, if Foster can add some production in his sophomore campaign, I really like him in next year's draft.

pc: Grant Halverson/Getty Images

This season as the fifth option on Duke, he's putting up 7.7 points per game, 2.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and .6 steals. His splits haven't been great, as he's shooting 43.7% from the field, 30.2% from three, and 68.8% from the line. With that being said, he hasn't seen consistent usage on a stacked Duke team, and I think this will change next year and help his numbers improve.

Foster isn't some sort of amazing athlete who can wow you with his rim pressure. However, he is a composed ball handler who manages to find his way to the rim and is a capable finisher. He also bolsters a solid pull-up game that makes him a difficult player to defend. Sometimes he shoots the three well, and sometimes he doesn't. That shot from deep is a work in progress, and I think he will benefit from more consistent usage and the ability to pick and choose his shots next year. His mechanics need a little fine-tuning, but they aren't bad. He does show signs of being a solid facilitator and offensive hub, something that could help him become more of a point going forward. If he were able to transition to the one, his size would be a huge plus in his evaluation. Overall, he's a composed freshman who still has work to do in some departments.

It's a lot of the same on defense. He's not a great defender, but he is a smart defender. He's not going to keep up with quick guards, but he uses his size to his advantage in these matchups. He's not going to be a great interior defender but can be good in help at times. He's never going to be asked to guard an opposing team's best player, but he can stick with second and third options well.

I would say that Caleb Foster has shown me enough for me to be positive about his long-term outlook. I love freshman who are composed with the ball in their hands, and Foster is just that. He plays with a poise that you don't see very often from younger guys, and if he can turn that poise into production, he will be a first-round selection next year.

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That is all for the Duke prospect overview. Duke doesn't have the NBA footprint that a team like Kentucky has, but they're very close. This is one of their weaker teams in recent memory, and they're still one of the better teams in the country. They have five draftable prospects this year, and if I had to take an educated guess, I think they will convert on three or four of those. Then next year they have some of the best high-school recruits in the nation heading their way. I'm excited to see how these guys perform in March, and I'm even more excited to write this blog again next year with their stacked incoming class. Stay tuned for the next edition in this series, where I will likely stick with another blue-blood program.