I've been thinking of how I wanted to return to my mid-major mastery series, and for a while I wasn't able to find a guy I wanted to cover. So far, all the guys I've covered have been arguably the most impactful guy on their team. I've covered guys who are averaging numbers that jump off the page and force your jaw to the floor, but I wanted to do something different. Instead, I wanted to cover a guy that, while he may not be the first or second option on his team every night, has legitimate traits that I believe will translate to the NBA game. Several of the players I've covered in this series are fantastic college performers, but don't have NBA upside. Indiana State's Ryan Conwell isn't one of those guys. Now, I must admit, Conwell is the second or third best player on arguably the best mid-major team in the country, which means he would be the best player on most mid-major teams (and some power five teams). That being said, I don't think he's getting the love he deserves as he helps lead Indiana State to an NIT championship. I'm convinced that Conwell is one of the best three-point shooters in all of college basketball, and he does so much more than that too. I'm going to break down his game and tell you why you should keep Ryan Conwell on your radar as a potential breakout candidate for the 2025 NBA Draft.
pc: Jamie Sabau/NCAA Photos
Three-Point Shooting:
Like I said, I believe that Ryan Conwell is one of the few truly elite shooters in college basketball. This is the premier aspect of his game, and the part of his game that I believe will best translate to the professional level. This season he's shooting 41.9% from beyond the arc while shooting 6.7 threes per game. Both his volume and efficiency have gotten significantly better this season in comparison to his freshman season at USF last year. At first, one could chalk these improvements up to increased usage and a subsequent hot streak, but at this point in the season you can no longer argue that the sample size isn't there. Conwell has cemented himself as an elite shooter, and he has done so in a multitude of ways. He is a capable shooter in every situation you can think of, including catch-and-shoot, off the dribble, on the move, and from every spot around the arc.
I wanted to start with some catch-and-shoot looks, because if you can't knock these down you can't be considered an elite deep threat. Luckily for the sake of this article, Conwell knocks these down at a high clip. I decided to include a couple clips where Conwell has to adjust to a tough pass, get the ball in his shooting pocket, before hitting the shot. I think this shows more ability than just your usual three-pointer standing still in the corner or on a drive and kick. In the clip above you see Conwell corral the quick pass, bringing it in with his left hand and letting it loose before the contest meets him. In the clip below, a bad pass sends the ball above Conwell's right shoulder. He's able to make the catch, bring it in, and get his shot off very quickly to avoid the incoming defender.
This last catch-and-shoot clip is more traditional seeing that the pass actually hits Conwell where it's supposed to. I had to include at least one, because I wanted to show just how pure his mechanics are. When he's already set up his release isn't incredibly quick, but he has a high enough release point to not be too thrown off by the contest. That's a theme that you'll recognize quickly when you watch Conwell, that contests don't seem to affect him much at all.
The majority of Conwell's looks from three come via off-ball movements and drawn up sets. Consequently, he shoots a ton of his threes on the move. This flowing shooting motion is where he looks most comfortable and is the part of his game that likely entices scouts the most.
Here you see an example of Conwell getting his shot off on the move, but what's really impressive is him knocking the shot down while getting his legs swept out of under him. Something about his shot that I love is that he doesn't have a ton of action with his legs when he shoots. Not only does this mean that in situations like this he isn't incredibly phased by lower body contact, but it also means he isn't a guy who's going to get called for offensive fouls on legs kicking out on shots. He has a solid base and elevates off of it, no extra leg motion necessary.
Both of these clips fall somewhere between a catch-and-shoot three and moving three. I'd lean more towards the prior, but I wanted to point out the two-step shuffle that Conwell does on these looks to step into his shot. On both shots there is a big defender directly in front of him, yet he still steps towards the contest. Despite that, not only does the defender not get a hand on the ball, but the contest doesn't affect Conwell in the slightest. Why? Because shots like these are basically practice looks for elite shooters like him. That two-step shuffle that he takes is all he needs to get in rhythm before he actually takes the shot. A lot of guys like to be on the move when they shoot, and Conwell is effectively simulating this movement on these shots.
I don't have too much to break down about this play apart from pointing out the depth of the shot and the fact that a screen for Conwell is basically a death sentence for opponents. It doesn't really matter how deep he is; his mechanics are the same every time. So, in a situation like this, where his center sets a screen that gives him a ton of space, he's going to knock down the shot more often than not.
I wanted to include this set that Indiana State ran for Conwell, where he operates as a screener before circling back off a screen to get the shot. Obviously, this set gives him the space that we just talked about, but this is a totally different look. That vertical run back to the three-point line with his back to the basket before turning and squaring up for the shot is a very difficult shot to take and make. My best guess is that Conwell practices this a ton. We saw Duncan Robinson, one of the NBA's best three-point shooters, take a ton of these in college, and he still takes them today. This is a shot that not every good shooter makes at an efficient clip, and if Conwell can make these that's just another shooting trait that will translate to the next level for him.
Conwell isn't a super dynamic shot creator from three. Despite his shooting ability being his most prolific trait, the majority of his shot creation actually comes inside the arc. For the most part, he's a secondary operator when he's looking for his deep shot. However, he is capable of creating his own shot from deep, and the clip above is an example of this. Using the help of a screener, Conwell decides to stop his momentum going left to turn the defender back where he came from before taking the jumper. By the time he runs his defender into the screen, he has a ton of space that the secondary defender simply isn't able to make up.
I have one more three-pointer clip in this article, but I'm going to save it for a different section. I think I gave enough examples to illustrate just how dynamic of a deep threat Ryan Conwell is. He has crisp and repeatable shooting mechanics that allow him to get his shot off in basically every situation. Contests don't really bother him, and his shot doesn't worsen when he has to adjust or is deeper than normal. There just aren't many shooters of his caliber playing collegiate basketball at the moment. I think if he can continue producing at this level next season, I don't see any reason why he shouldn't have some draft buzz from his shooting alone, not to mention all of the other stuff we're about to go over.
Rim Pressure:
While he is viewed as a three-point shooter, what makes Ryan Conwell a real weapon on the basketball court is his ability to punish defenders who don't give him room. Not only is he a great shooter, but he's very good driving to the basket. He has a solid handle and has really good finishing abilities that make him a legitimate threat around the rim and on the drive. This efficient rim pressure forces defenders to give him space around the arc, allowing him to get his shot off. If defenders decide to worry more about his shot (which they probably should) then he can blow by them and attack the rim. This offensive versatility has been massive for Indiana State this season and is something that well very obviously translate to the professional level.
Here's two different situations, showing Conwell's versatility and IQ as a driver. In the first clip you see him immediately attack the close out after receiving the pass. I alluded to this, but the ability to use your shooting acumen to support your driving ability is a high-level trait that most players don't possess. Also, once he's blown past his defender, he displays his elite finishing ability by gliding from one side of the paint to the other while in the air to make the layup as easy as possible. Not only do you have to be a serious athlete to pull that off, but you have to have genuine offensive IQ to even attempt that on the fly.
In the second clip Conwell flows within Indiana State's offense more than he creates his own. I wanted to include this because this is the type of play you see from lead ball-handlers, not shooting guards like Conwell is projected to be. He navigates two screens on the way to the basket and finishes with a crafty off-balance floater. Notice how high the defender is meeting Conwell, as if he's going to pull-up from half -court. The defender here is either attempting to test his handle or prepare for a potential three as Conwell inches up the court, but because Conwell is so good on the drive this strategy was never going to work.
Just another clip that shows off Conwell's finishing ability, but also his strength. He's 6'4", which isn't anything to write home about, but he is broader and stronger than most guards his height. He has a similar build to someone like Desmond Bane, which explains both the strength and shooting abilities. He's not as stocky as Bane, but he definitely has a stronger physical stature than most combo guards. That strength helps him bully his defender here and create space under the rim for the reverse layup.
Some more evidence that Conwell has the handle to be a lead guard. Three crossover clips that lead to relatively easy buckets. He has to work a little harder on the first play, but once again he floats through the paint to get a reverse layup (he's good at that). In the second two clips he absolutely freezes his defender with that crossover. Again, his shooting acumen forces these defenders to play him super close, and he has a good enough handle and good enough acceleration to beat them more often than not. I actually think that if he were the primary ball handler on this Indiana State team that we would see plays like these several times per game. At this point the sample size is big enough to assume he could replicate this stuff with increased usage.
Ryan Conwell is one of the best cutting guards I've seen in college basketball. A big reason for this is that he's playing with the college equivalent to Nikola Jokic in Robbie Avila, but you have to give credit where credit's due. Once again, this is just another symptom of defenders guarding him as tightly as possible to not give up the three, and instead they give up the easy layup. It's even more pronounced in these situations because opposing teams know how lethal Conwell is as an off the ball shooter. Defenders get caught blocking his path towards the ball, but he knows that as soon as Avila gets that ball it's a cutting opportunity. Finally, he has a good enough finishing package to work around any sort of rim protector waiting for him.
Transition:
A deadly aspect of Ryan Conwell's game that may not get too much attention is his ability to operate in transition. In these situations, he's able to score, pass, and apply gravity for his teammates. His high IQ generates a ton of efficient offense in transition, something that will translate to higher level, faster paced, hoops.
Here he applies the handle and rim pressure we were just talking about to attack the rim in transition. He slices through the defense with a ton of speed, while still maintaining his composure and getting the finish. He's capable of doing this when a defender tries to meet him in transition, as his speed and athleticism is always going to overpower the backpedaling defender.
This one is pretty self-explanatory, as Conwell knocks down the transition three. This should be expected seeing his shooting prowess, but even some of the world's best shooters aren't the greatest in this situation. He has to catch this ball over his shoulder while not looking at the basket before squaring his body up and taking the shot, all while on the move. This is just another layer of his three-point shooting and transition scoring games.
Like I mentioned, Conwell is a fantastic passer in transition as well. This isn't a particularly difficult pass to make, but it is clear that he saw this opportunity coming from a mile away. That's the high basketball IQ in action. In the half-court he mainly operates as a connective passer and smart decision maker, but in transition he's able to show off his ability to throw the flashy pass. Both of these aspects of playmaking are valuable, and he has them both.
Defense:
In the modern era, very few archetypes are as valuable than a three-and-d player. We've already gone over Ryan Conwell's ability to knock down the three, so now let's go over his defense. Indiana State is a team with several fantastic perimeter defenders, and Conwell is no different. That strength that we talked about in the rim pressure section applies here, as he's able to overpower fellow guards and hold his own against bigs. He's also a fantastic when moving laterally, which was what stuck out more than anything when watching his defensive film.
This clip shows off not only Conwell's transition passing acumen, but also his defense. He jumps the passing lane on defense to get Indiana State's transition offense started, and then throws the flashy pass to end it. I wanted to include this clip first because it bridges the gap between the transition and defense sections. This defensive possession isn't too crazy, but it does give an example of how Conwell is capable of finding ways to disrupt big men when he's switched onto them.
This play just about sums up Conwell as a defender. He fights the screen like a mad man, bodies up the ball handler while moving laterally and keeps him away from the paint before contesting the shot to cause the miss. He's not going to be a tier one defender at the next level, but he'll be well above average, especially against guards that are smaller and weaker than he is.
Conwell only had 10 blocks this season, so actually getting a hand on the ball on his contests isn't exactly a part of his game. However, when he does block a shot it's usually via an athletic feat such as in these clips. He's called for a foul (highly arguable) on that first clip, but I just wanted to showcase not only his ability to get near the top of the backboard on that block, but also his ability to get back in transition. The second clip is actually him recovering, chasing down the opponent who just blew past him, to get the block after Avila made him take a difficult shot. Again, blocks like these are few and far between, but Conwell is athletically capable of pulling off a highlight block every now and then.
Passing:
Now, I think Conwell is a better passer in transition than he is in the half-court, but that doesn't mean he's a bad passer in these possessions. He's not asked to be a primary ball handler all that much, and when he is he prefers to attack the rim. I mentioned earlier that he's a solid connective passer, and he is. He rarely makes mistakes, averaging only 1.7 turnovers per game as a guard. The majority of his passing is made up of easy passes made quickly, which shouldn't be overlooked. He makes the right read, and he rarely hesitates to make it. That being said, he can get flashy on occasion, and I think if he really wanted to, he could do it more often than he does.
Not a difficult pass here, and it's one that's generated via Indiana State's fantastic offense, but at least Conwell is being asked to make the play. A ton of the stuff I'm showing here is to express that I believe he can be a solid secondary playmaker/secondary ball-handler. He's able to see his target over his defender and make an accurate overhead pass.
This is the more impressive pass that I decided to clip. It does result in a goaltending call, which kind of ruins the clip from a highlights perspective, but it works here. He throws an absolute laser with one hand, showing off some pretty impressive vision and ability. He's also left-handed (or at least he shoots with his left) so he's throwing this with his off hand.
If you combine these passing examples with the ones from the transition section, you can see why I think Conwell is a solid passer. I decided not to include a lot of his simpler passes, but those are probably actually more important. On the season he's only averaging 2.5 assists per game, but like I've said, he's very rarely the primary ball handler and playmaker for Indiana State.
Weaknesses:
I don't write long break downs of weaknesses in this series, and instead just list them out. Luckily for Ryan, myself, and whatever team he ends up playing for in the future, he really doesn't have a ton of glaring weaknesses.
Lack of a mid-range game. The mid-range only makes up 6% of his shot diet, limiting his offensive versatility to two levels.
Lack of usage as a lead guard. Playing primarily at the two, which raises concerns regarding positional size.
Can be foul prone at times, has fouled out of a couple games this season. Likely a result of his tough defense if you want to put a positive spin on it.
Can get trigger happy from three in games where defenses are able to disrupt the flow of Indiana State's offense, leading to poor shot selection.
Despite showing flashes, hasn't shown enough to be confident in his above-the-rim abilities on either end.
Good finisher, but mostly finishes around contact. Would like to see him attack the body of rim protectors more often to see if he can draw fouls while still getting his points.
That's really all that stood out to me as far as weaknesses are concerned. The only one that really caught my attention was his hesitancy to take the mid-range shot. Most guys who are great shooters and drivers also have a good pull-up game to add one extra layer to their offensive versatility, and Conwell isn't quite there yet. All of that being said, he doesn't have a singular grotesque weakness in his game and is a very well-rounded player.
Summary and Outlook:
Overall, Ryan Conwell is a player who I will have on my radar for next year's draft. He will be coming off of his junior season, and I assume will be coming off of an even more successful year for Indiana State. His biggest strength is his ability to shoot the three ball, which he does in basically every way you could imagine. This, as you know, is likely the most valuable trait a guard can have in their bag in the modern era, which bodes well for Conwell's future draft stock. He's also a dynamic rim attacker and smooth finisher who can punish defenders in a multitude of ways. He's an above average ball handler and passer for a two guard, and I'd like to see him get more minutes at the one next season to see what he can really do. He doesn't have any glaring weaknesses and will be a relatively safe prospect coming out of college.
If Conwell can increase his scoring and assist output next season while maintaining his efficiency, I see no reason why he can't be a legitimate draft prospect. I even think that if Indiana State continues to garner serious media attention that he could sneak into discussions for the first round. I predict that he will lead the Sycamores in scoring next year, and that they will make the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, strengthening his draft stock to end the year.