I Scouted Oakland - Kentucky's First-Round Opponent - So You Don't Have To

The NCAA tournament is finally here, and as per usual, everyone is searching for this year's Cinderella story. Every year a team emerges who, previous to March, nobody knew existed. Two years ago, it was the 15-seeded St.Peters Peacocks who captured the hearts of men on their run to the Elite 8. They would eventually fall to North Carolina, but their Cinderella story began when they defeated 2-seeded Kentucky and National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. Ever since that fateful day, Kentucky fans have shared the fear that a John Calipari led Wildcats squad will once again have their tournament cut short by a team that barely made the big dance. This year Kentucky has landed the third seed, matching them up against Oakland, the Horizon League champions. I am well aware that 99% of Kentucky fans have never even heard of this university, so I have taken it upon myself to watch their film and determine if they have any chance of mirroring the Peacocks of two-years past. Sit back, relax, and allow me to introduce the Oakland Golden Grizzlies (fantastic mascot choice).

pc: via Oakland Athletics

Personnel

Before I can really dig into the nitty gritty strategy talk, we have to look at what Oakland is working with. They're actually a very well-balanced team, but at the same time are led in almost every statistical category by one man: Trey Townsend. Townsend is a junior forward averaging nearly 17 points per game on top of 7.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He's only a threat inside the arc, where he likes to pull-up for mid-range shots or back down smaller defenders and use an array of post-moves to get his shot inside. He's also a capable passer who can find open teammates when he's asked to be the team's offensive hub. He will likely be matched up against Adou Thiero or Justin Edwards. He could find his shot against Edwards, but Thiero will be a really tough matchup for him. If Oakland wants to win this game Townsend will have to score, but his primary value in this matchup may be hitting his three-point shooters for open shots.

Speaking of three-point shooters, Oakland has two VERY good three-point shooters running their backcourt. Blake Lampman and Jack Gohlke make up their senior guard tandem, and these guys can shoot the rock. They both shoot nearly 40% from three, while they each shoot upwards of eight or nine threes per game if necessary. They don't run a ton of the offense, and instead let the frontcourt guys operate in the high-post while they run off-ball looking for shots. If they can beat their defender and get loose, they are incredibly dangerous. These two will be how Oakland gets an advantage over Kentucky. Kentucky is known for their poor perimeter defense, and if Oakland's sharpshooters can take advantage of that then an upset may be brewing. Rob Dillingham's poor perimeter defense could be a major liability in this game, meaning Sheppard will have to work overtime to make up for these defensive lapses.

Chris Conway is Oakland's big man in the middle, and he could be the X-Factor in this game. He's an undersized center who plays a very important role within the Golden Grizzlies' offense. He primarily operates at the high-post, where he's the team's offensive hub. He finds open teammates, doesn't make mistakes, and allows the offense to flow. He can also take the ball off the dribble and attack the basket. He's big enough to overpower Zvonimir Ivisic and fast enough to get by Ugonna Onyenso. The best option against Conway is probably going to be Tre Mitchell playing the small-ball five, as they are similar in size and athletic ability.

Other than those four guys they have a few more role players and bench contributors, but no other big impact players. All in all, this is a very experienced team who play to their strengths and don't make a ton of mistakes.

Offense

I already covered most of their offensive strategy in the previous section, but I just want to reiterate a few things. They have two major offensive tactics that they use depending on their opponents. Their primary strategy is to put one of their forwards, Townsend or Conway, on the high-post with the ball while the guards scramble around the floor looking for an open shot. This either works and the player on the high-post is able to find said guard, or the player with the ball accelerates toward the basket and tries to create their own offense inside. They can also pull-up from mid-range if given too much space. This will likely be how they start against Kentucky, especially if they start Onyenso at the five instead of Mitchell.

Their other offensive strategy is to utilize the good ole' fashion drive and kick. If their high-post offense isn't working, they will kick it out to the perimeter, and they'll put the pressure on. This is where Trey Townsend really shines, as he's very good at attacking the rim and pulling up for mid-range jumpers. I actually think this is how they'll try to beat Kentucky, as they don't defend the drive particularly well. This could seriously wear out Kentucky and allow Oakland's three-point threats to find their shot more and more easily throughout the game. If Oakland does start really pushing the drive and kick, this is when Calipari should keep Ugonna Onyenso in the game to make sure they aren't giving up buckets at the rim.

At the end of the day, Oakland's offense is going to live and die by their three-point shooting. Townsend is their best player and will put points on the board, but Oakland can't keep up with Kentucky's high-powered offense if they aren't knocking down their threes.

Defense

Oakland plays zone defense, that's all. I would be shocked if they don't sit in a zone the entire game. This will really put the pressure on Kentucky's three-point shooting. Reeves will have to have a big shooting night, because putting the trust in Sheppard and Dillingham is how you lose these games. Not because they are incapable of doing well in this position, but because your experienced players should be leading the charge.

Oakland collapses when the ball enters the paint, doing their best to stop easy baskets around the rim. If Kentucky can infiltrate the paint this should leave their shooters even more open outside. Someone like Ivisic could be huge here, as he's the best passer of all of Kentucky's bigs. However, I think he'll get beat up on the other end. Because of that, I think Tre Mitchell is going to be the way to go in this department.

Kentucky is going to have to hit their threes to win this game and leave the mid-range and floater game behind them. Luckily, Kentucky is a very good three-point shooting team with four guys on the floor at all times who can make the deep shot.

Summary

Oakland will probably keep this game close. They have proven this season that they're capable of sticking with power conference teams. They played Ohio State and Illinois close earlier this season, and they beat Xavier. They have the weapons to score in multiple ways, and they don't have any true holes in their offense. Their major issue is going to be stopping Kentucky from scoring. I don't think zone defense is the best way to stop Kentucky, but that's the only defense that Oakland ever plays. I think gritty, man defense is the best way to stop Kentucky's offensive flow, and I just don't see Oakland playing that way.

Even though I just told you the ways that Oakland could potentially win this game, there really is no excuse for Kentucky to lose this. They have better players, better depth, more versatility, and they match up well against this team. If they can't pull out a win here, they have bigger issues at hand than this year's tournament.