Here are the Most Likely Cinderella Teams in this Year's NCAA Tournament
- Ethan "CEO" Alexander
- Mar 19, 2024
- 8 min read
With the NCAA tournament starting in only two days, I figured I would hop on the ole' blog and concoct some thoughts about the greatest event in sports. What makes it the best thing in sports? The Cinderella teams. The teams that nobody had heard of before they won their little conference tournament, and now they're matched up against one of the best teams in the country with only one thing on their mind...making history. Every year folks like me try to determine which teams are most likely to make said history, and even though this is an impossible task, I like to think I'm knowledgeable enough to have a fighter's chance. That being said, here are the teams that I think have a shot at history this year.
East Region
12-Seed UAB Blazers
One of the premier upset picks every year is the 12 seed beating the 5 seed. It's a small enough gap for it to be possible, and it's a big enough gap for it to feel like a real upset. Even though there is a seven seed gap between UAB and their first-round opponent, San Diego State, I don't think these teams are that far apart talent-wise. San Diego State will have the best player on the floor in Jaedon LeDee, who's been great this season. However, UAB will have the second and third best players on the floor in Yaxel Lendeborg and Eric Gaines. I trust both of these guys to play their game no matter how good of a defense that San Diego State bolsters, and if they can get some additional offense from their role players, they should have good offensive output. UAB is a very good offensive rebounding team, often frustrating opponents who aren't used to being pressured on the offensive glass. They are also great at drawing fouls and knocking down their free-throws. All it would take would be LeDee getting into foul trouble trying to guard Lendeborg and all of a sudden, this game would flip. On paper San Diego State should win this game, but I see several scenarios that would put UAB in a great position.
pc: AP Photo/Butch Dill
14-Seed Morehead State Eagles
This is a tough one, because I would be very excited about a Morehead State upset if they weren't playing Illinois. Illinois isn't a great matchup for them, and they are very hot right now coming off of a Big Ten championship run. However, Morehead State has been one of the best mid-major teams in the country, and their star player, Riley Minix, will be the second-best player on the floor in this game. Minix is an absolute stud, and if he were to catch fire that could lead to some trouble for Illinois. The Eagles are also very hot, dominating all of their opponents in the OVC tournament. They've got three other double-digit scorers besides Minix, so they're not a one-man army. They are going to try to slow down this game's tempo big time, something that could hurt Illinois' fast-paced offense. They also guard the three very well, which could limit some of Illinois' offensive versatility. Everything would have to go right for Morehead State to win this game, but I think that March is the perfect time of year for that to happen.
pc: via Fox News Digital
10-Seed Drake Bulldogs
I debated including Drake in this blog because even though they're the lower seed in their first-round matchup against Washington State, they're actually favored to win. I included them because I think they have the potential to go deeper in the tournament than just the round of 32. They are a very well-built team led by one of the best mid-major players in the country, Tucker DeVries. They made the tournament last year but were bounced in the first-round, and this year they have something to prove with an even better team. They have three other double-digit scorers as well as one of the best fast-paced point guards in the nation, Conor Enright. They beat Indiana State, a previously nationally ranked team, in the MVC tournament to clinch their tournament berth. Washington State could prove me wrong and get the win in the first-round, but I think if Drake wins their first game and gets some momentum, they could be a hard team to beat.
pc: Jeff Curry/USA Today Sports
West Region
11-Seed New Mexico Lobos
Talk about an under seeded team, this is a seriously dangerous New Mexico team. They're led by dynamic point-guard Jaelen House, but they have three other players who could cause damage in the tournament. They play a super fun brand of basketball, but I worry that that could lead people to be higher on them than they should be. I don't love their matchup against Clemson, a composed and experienced team who can turn New Mexico over and chip away at them throughout a game. That being said, New Mexico is a very good defensive team with solid offensive output, which is a good recipe for winning games in this tournament. I actually like them more against Baylor in the second-round than I do against Clemson in the first, so if they can get past their first game, I like them to win their second as well.
pc: via Sports Illustrated
6-Seed Clemson Tigers
Yep, I'm putting both New Mexico and Clemson on this list, because I think both teams are capable of a deep run in the tournament. Clemson's PJ Hall is one of the best players in the country, and I think he's going to give this New Mexico team serious trouble in the first-round. New Mexico will likely have to double-team him whenever he gets it in the post, allowing him to hit his three-point shooting teammates for open threes. Clemson has several other legitimate weapons on both sides of the floor who could put in work if opponents really focus in on Hall. This is a team that was inconsistent throughout the season, but at times looked like one of the best teams in the country. If they can play their best basketball in March like they're supposed to, I don't see any reason why they couldn't make a deep run.
pc: via ClemsonWire
7-Seed Dayton Flyers
A lot of people are picking Dayton to lose their first-round game to Nevada, but I don't see that happening. I think Dayton has the makings of an unexpected mid-seeded team that could make a deep run in this tournament. They have one of the best players in this tournament in DaRon Holmes, and a roster built to compliment him. They are an excellent three-point shooting team, knocking down 40% of their threes as a team on the season. This combination of elite inside and outside offense makes them a nightmare for defenses, who are unable to focus on one facet of defense. Dayton is also a versatile defensive team, who will throw several different looks at their opponents over the course of a game. Something about this team screams Cinderella run to me, and I'm not only going to go with the eye-test, but also with my gut.
pc: AP Photo/Paul Vernon
South Region
8-Seed Nebraska Cornhuskers
Some teams are just built for this tournament, and Nebraska is one of those teams. They are led by the most electric player in the tournament, Keisei Tominaga. They are a team that is almost unbeatable when they catch fire, picking up wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and several other big-name teams this season. They are a top-35 offense and defense in the nation, something that always results in good tournament performances. This is simply a team that can't lose in the first-round, I just can't have it. They are too electric to not give top-seeded Houston a run for their money in the second-round. Even if they end up losing that game, it would be a crime for Tominaga to leave this tournament not being considered a March Madness legend.
pc: USA Today Sports/Dylan Widger
11-Seed NC State Wolfpack
NC State is a team that shouldn't even be in the tournament, and yet they just had one of the best conference tournament runs I've ever seen. After finishing 10th in the ACC, and almost losing to Louisville in the first round of their conference tournament, the Wolfpack became a different team. They went on to beat Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina to secure the ACC championship and secure their tournament bid. Like Nebraska, they are led by an absolute electric factory in DJ Burns Jr. In addition to Burns, they have several other formidable weapons, including leading scorer DJ Horne. They play incredibly tough defense and play as hard as a team can play. They are probably the hottest team in the country right now, and I don't see that hot streak ending at the hands of Texas Tech. Not to mention they'll likely take on Kentucky in the second round with a chance to take down Duke, UNC, and Kentucky in less than two-weeks. The story is too perfect not to come true, so I'm riding with the Wolfpack this year.
pc: via Yahoo Sports
Midwest Region
12-Seed McNeese State Cowboys
This is an odd situation, because I'm way lower on McNeese State than most college basketball fans. They may be 30-3, but their strength of schedule was atrocious. They packed their schedule with cupcake teams, with their best win of the season being against a UAB team that hadn't started playing their best basketball yet. In most scenarios I probably wouldn't have them on this list, but they lucked out and matched up against a Gonzaga team who I think is awful. McNeese will have the best player on the floor in Shahada Wells, and he will be sharing the court with a few more solid role players for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Gonzaga will be putting Nolan Hickman on the floor, who may be the easiest player to beat in the country. If McNeese, who has an excellent coach in Will Wade, puts any pressure on Hickman, he will finish with ten turnovers and lose Gonzaga this game. I don't trust Gonzaga as far as I can throw them, and that's the main reason why I'm picking McNeese State to win their first-round game.
pc: AP Photo/Matthew Hinton
13-Seed Samford Bulldogs
Samford is one of my favorite low-seeded teams in this tournament, and for good reason. They are excellent on both sides of the floor, and they have a star player who controls the game on both ends. Achor Achor is one of my favorite mid-major stars, and I think his game will translate well to the tournament. He's a lanky and athletic big who plays great defense, great interior offense, can shoot the three, and can pass the ball. He's surrounded by a group of experienced and composed guards who never turn the ball over and make their shots. They absolutely dominated on their way to the SoCon championship and are very hot right now. They played some solid teams this year, so they won't be shell-shocked when they play Kansas. Speaking of Kansas, this Kansas team has been awful as of late. This stretch of bad basketball is mainly because of injuries to their two best players, Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar. That being said, they've looked totally checked out and uninterested in playing basketball over the past few weeks. One team is playing their best basketball of the season, and one team is playing their worst, that's a recipe for a big March Madness blue-blood upset.
pc: via The Columbus Dispatch
In my opinion, those ten teams are the most likely Cinderella teams this year. All ten of them have a solid case for why you should believe in their tournament hopes, and at least a few of them have to make some noise. If I'm wrong and all of these teams get sent home in the first weekend then forget everything you just read, but I hope we get to see some of these teams dance for longer than expected. I will have some more tournament blogs between now and the Championship game, so stay tuned.
Also, shoutout to St.Peters, who made the tournament again this year.
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